Changing Security Dynamics in the Persian Gulf Following the U.S. Operation “Epic Fury”: A Preliminary Assessment
Since the outbreak of the war in February 2026, the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, including President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, has profoundly reshaped the security landscape of the Middle East. Yet the consequences of the conflict have extended far beyond the region. Disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, rising energy prices, and growing uncertainty in global markets have affected economies worldwide. The repercussions have also become evident in transatlantic relations, international trade and investment flows, aviation and tourism, and global food security.
These developments have highlighted the enduring strategic importance of the Persian Gulf for the global economy and international politics. At the same time, they have raised fundamental questions about the future of U.S. engagement in the region, its broader international strategy, and the role of the European Union in responding to emerging geopolitical challenges. The conflict has also intensified debates about the future balance of power in the Middle East and the conditions necessary for establishing a stable and sustainable postwar regional order.
In this lecture, Prof. Dr. Gawdat Bahgat will examine the causes, consequences, and potential outcomes of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. He will explore the conflict’s implications for the United States, Israel, Iran, its regional proxy networks, and the Gulf states, while assessing the broader geopolitical and economic impact on the international system.
The lecture will be followed by a conversation between Prof. Dr. Gawdat Bahgat and Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie, Director of the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS) and Henry Kissinger Chair for Security and Strategic Studies at the University of Bonn. Their discussion will focus on American and European approaches to the conflict, the evolving security architecture of the Middle East, and prospects for future transatlantic cooperation in addressing regional challenges.
The event will conclude with a Q&A session, giving participants the opportunity to interact directly with the speakers and contribute to the discussion.
Programs:
• 6:00 p.m.: Opening remarks by Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie, University of Bonn
• 6:10 p.m.: Public lecture by Prof. Dr. Gawdat Bahgat, National Defense University, Washington, D.C.
• 6:35 p.m.: Conversation between Prof. Dr. Gawdat Bahgat and Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie
• 7:00 p.m.: Moderated discussion with the audience
Prof. Dr. Gawdat Bahgat is a distinguished professor at the Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C. He is a renowned expert on energy security, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Bahgat is the author of 11 books and more than 200 articles in scholarly journals. His most recent book, *Defending Iran: From Revolutionary Guards to Ballistic Missiles*, was published by Cambridge University Press.
Please register for the event using the following link here.
